Pegasus Lift - Mission Summary

Evaluation of Options & Impact of Alerts

Operation Pegasus Lift – Mission Summary

CJ 1 – Equipment Selection

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Mission-Enabling Value	How strongly the kit unlocks or enhances later high-pay-off courses of action.	0.30	The whole purpose of pre-mission load-planning is to create future options; that long-tail benefit deserves top weight.
Weight / Mobility Penalty	Added kilograms and bulk that will slow ingress, egress, and casualty movement.	0.25	Excess weight hurts performance in every phase; almost as decisive as mission-enabling value.
Signature & Detectability	Likelihood the gear produces noise, light, RF, or bulk that makes the team easier to detect.	0.20	Stealth is a core SOF principle, but most loads can be masked through tactics; moderate weight.
Versatility Across Phases	Number of distinct phases or contingencies in which the kit is useful.	0.15	Flexibility matters, but only after the first three factors are satisfied.
Humanitarian / Resilience Benefit	Contribution to medical treatment for allies or civilians, or to team endurance.	0.10	Ethical and resilience value is important, but it cannot override mission success criteria.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option & Factor Weighting	Mission-Enabling Value	Weight / Mobility Penalty	Signature & Detectability	Versatility Across Phases	Humanitarian / Resilience Benefit	Total
	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	1.00
Technical Surveillance Equipment	1.50	1.00	0.80	0.75	0.20	4.25
Advanced Medical Supplies	1.20	0.75	1.00	0.60	0.50	4.05
Non-Lethal Equipment	0.90	0.75	0.60	0.45	0.40	3.10
Camouflage & Concealment	0.60	1.00	0.80	0.45	0.10	2.95
Weapons & Ammunition	0.60	0.50	0.40	0.30	0.10	1.90
Explosives & Breaching Equipment	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.30	0.00	1.05

CJ 2 – Tactical Insertion

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Detection Risk / Stealth	Probability the insertion method will be spotted or heard by hostiles.	0.30	A compromised infiltration can end the mission before it starts — highest weight.
Total Time to Crash Site	End-to-end duration from departure to on-scene arrival.	0.25	Time is life for the survivor and reduces the window for enemy response.
Insertion Reliability	Sensitivity to weather, aircraft availability, or specialist skill requirements.	0.20	Even a stealthy fast plan is useless if it’s cancelled half the time.
Operational Flexibility	Freedom to adjust landing point, exfiltration axes, or altitude advantage.	0.15	Valuable but a tie-breaker after stealth, time, and reliability.
Physical Toll on Team	Fatigue, decompression, or injury risk imposed by the method.	0.10	Important, yet SOF teams usually mitigate via conditioning.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option & Factor Weighting	Detection Risk / Stealth	Total Time	Insertion Reliability	Operational Flexibility	Physical Toll	Total
	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	1.00
HALO Parachute	1.50	1.25	0.80	0.60	0.30	4.45
Jungle Infiltration	1.50	0.50	1.00	0.60	0.20	3.80
HAHO Parachute	1.20	1.00	0.60	0.60	0.30	3.70
Indigenous Canoe	1.20	0.75	0.60	0.45	0.30	3.30
Humanitarian-Aid Cover	0.60	0.75	0.60	0.30	0.40	2.65

CJ 3 – Medical Intervention

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Probability of Medical Survival	Estimated chance the casualty survives 24 hours post-treatment.	0.30	Saving the isolated aircrew is the mission’s purpose — top weight.
Time on Site	Additional minutes the team remains stationary at the crash site.	0.25	Longer exposure multiplies ambush risk; near-top weight.
Mobility After Treatment	Expected pace the casualty can sustain on foot after care.	0.20	Determines whether egress timelines remain feasible.
Team Security	Noise, light, or electronic signature introduced by the treatment.	0.15	A bad choice here can compromise stealth; mid-weight.
Logistical Dependence	Need for external assets or pre-chosen kit to execute the option.	0.10	Adds friction but is usually manageable — lowest weight.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option & Factor Weighting	Probability of Medical Survival	Time on Site	Mobility After Treatment	Team Security	Logistical Dependence	Total
	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	1.00
Immediate Extraction / In-Transit Care	1.50	1.25	0.60	0.60	0.40	4.35
Rapid Stabilization	1.20	1.00	0.80	0.60	0.50	4.10
Shrapnel Management & Splint	0.90	0.75	0.80	0.60	0.50	3.55
Advanced Medical Care Available if Advanced Medical Supplies selected in CJ 1	1.50	0.50	0.80	0.45	0.20	3.45
Drone-Delivered Supplies	0.90	0.25	0.80	0.30	0.10	2.35

CJ 4 – Ambush Ahead

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Probability of Avoiding Contact	Likelihood the team passes the ambush without engaging the enemy.	0.30	Preserving lives and ammo by avoiding contact is paramount.
Time Penalty to Extraction Point	Additional minutes required to reach the extraction point.	0.25	Delays increase exposure and reduce survival window.
Risk to Team	Expected casualty probability if contact occurs.	0.20	Direct threat to personnel safety must be minimized.
Operational Signature	Noise, smoke, or other detectable effects that reveal team presence.	0.15	Maintaining stealth and political discretion is important.
Sustainability	Impact on fatigue, ammunition, and morale for follow-on movement.	0.10	Ensuring capacity for subsequent phases is necessary.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option & Factor Weighting	Probability of Avoiding Contact	Time Penalty	Risk to Team	Operational Signature	Sustainability	Total
	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	1.00
Recon & Bypass Available if Technical Surveillance Equipment selected in CJ 1	1.50	1.00	0.80	0.75	0.40	4.45
KIA Diversion	1.50	0.75	1.00	0.45	0.30	4.00
Close Air Support	1.50	1.25	0.60	0.15	0.40	3.90
Alternate Route	1.20	0.75	0.80	0.75	0.30	3.80
Counter-Ambush Available if Weapons & Ammunition selected in CJ 1	0.90	1.00	0.40	0.15	0.20	2.65

CJ 5 – Civilian Encounter

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Protection of Non-Combatants	Degree to which the option safeguards the injured family from harm.	0.30	The Laws of Armed Conflict elevate civilian protection — highest weight.
Mission Integrity / Tempo	Impact on ability to complete rescue and meet the extraction timeline.	0.25	Cannot sacrifice the primary mission; near-top weight.
Risk to Team	Added detection, infection, or kinetic risk to the SOF team.	0.20	Team survival is critical but manageable through tactics.
Political / Informational Optics	Likelihood of negative press, strategic blowback, or diplomatic fallout.	0.15	Political cost echoes long after the mission; mid weight.
Resource Cost	Seats, fuel, or carry-load consumed.	0.10	Often the easiest constraint to mitigate — lowest weight.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option & Factor Weighting	Protection of Non-Combatants	Mission Integrity / Tempo	Risk to Team	Political / Informational Optics	Resource Cost	Total
	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	1.00
Leave Family Advanced Medical Supplies Available if Advanced Medical Supplies selected in CJ 1	1.20	1.25	1.00	0.60	0.50	4.55
Evacuate Child + One Parent	1.50	1.00	0.80	0.75	0.30	4.35
Evacuate Entire Family	1.50	0.50	0.60	0.75	0.20	3.55
Request Separate Extraction	1.20	0.75	0.80	0.60	0.20	3.55
Keep Moving	0.30	1.25	1.00	0.30	0.50	3.35

CJ 6 – Final Extraction

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Probability of Successful Extraction	Likelihood the entire team, casualty, and aircrew leave the area alive.	0.30	Mission cannot succeed without a safe extraction — top weight.
Immediate Risk to Life	Expected casualties to team and aircrew during the extraction attempt.	0.25	Almost as critical as success; balances risk vs. speed.
Time to Execute	Ability to complete the action within the 5-minute abort window.	0.20	Time is fuel and life; must fit within the abort timeline.
Collateral / Strategic Optics	Potential civilian damage and political fallout of the option.	0.15	Strategic cost lingers but secondary to saving lives now.
Follow-On Logistics	Fuel, ordnance, or maintenance impacts that affect further ops.	0.10	Important for subsequent missions, but least urgent.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option & Factor Weighting	Probability of Successful Extraction	Immediate Risk to Life	Time to Execute	Collateral / Strategic Optics	Follow-On Logistics	Total
	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.15	0.10	1.00
Call Close Air Support	1.50	1.25	1.00	0.45	0.30	4.50
Emergency Extraction Point	1.20	1.00	0.60	0.75	0.50	4.05
Cover Approach with Smoke Available if Non-Lethal Equipment selected in CJ 1	1.20	1.00	0.80	0.75	0.40	4.15
Make a Run for It	0.90	0.50	1.00	0.75	0.50	3.65
Call Off Extraction	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.75	0.50	1.50
Counter-Attack	0.30	0.25	0.40	0.30	0.20	1.45

Impact of Alerts

How Alerts Influenced Each Critical Juncture

Critical Juncture	Alert Impact
CJ 1 – Equipment Selection	No alerts: Evaluation reflects baseline planning assumptions.
CJ 2 – Tactical Insertion	Alert 2.2 – Helicopter Grounded: Removed helicopter insertion option. Alert 2.1 – Broken Communications: Increased urgency, boosting transit time scores (+0.25) and lowering reliability (–0.25) for air methods.
CJ 3 – Medical Intervention	Alert 3.1 – Multiple Extraction Points: Required reassessment of site time, penalizing slow options (–0.25). Alert 3.2 – Severe Weather & Rising Threat: Increased team security risk (–0.25) for radio/UAV methods.
CJ 4 – Ambush Ahead	HAWKEYE Intelligence: Detection of ~40 enemy soldiers spiked the weight on contact avoidance and forced counter-ambush raw score to 1.
CJ 5 – Civilian Encounter	Alert 5.1 – Hostile Platoon Closing: Removed KIA support option and reduced mission-integrity scores (–0.25) for all evac choices. KIA Support Offline: Penalized lingering options by raising team-risk (+0.25).
CJ 6 – Final Extraction	Alert 6.1 – V‑22 Damage & SAM Threat: Imposed a 5‑min abort window, added time-to-execute criterion (0.20 weight). Alert 6.1 Continued: Reduced success probabilities (–0.25) for options delaying takeoff; ran-time boosted (+0.20).

Team Scorecard

Confirm your team score below by selecting the options your team chose and confirm whether the time ran out (i.e. late decision). Compare your selection to the rank ordering from a professional Special Operations Forces team.

Pegasus Lift Mission Scorecard

Critical Juncture	Pro Team Score	Your Decision	Late Decision?
CJ 1: Equipment Selection
Technical Surveillance Equipment	5
Advanced Medical Supplies	4
Non-Lethal Equipment	3
Camouflage & Concealment	2
Weapons & Ammunition	1
Explosives & Breaching Equipment	0
CJ 2: Tactical Insertion
HALO Parachute	5
Jungle Infiltration	4
HAHO Parachute	3
Indigenous Canoe	2
Humanitarian-Aid Cover	1
CJ 3: Medical Intervention
Immediate Extraction / In-Transit Care	5
Rapid Stabilization	4
Shrapnel Management & Splint	3
Advanced Medical Care *Advanced Medical Supplies (CJ1)	2
Drone-Delivered Supplies	1
CJ 4: Ambush Ahead
Recon & Bypass *Technical Surveillance Equipment (CJ1)	5
KIA Diversion	4
Close Air Support	3
Alternate Route	2
Counter-Ambush *Weapons & Ammunition (CJ1)	1
CJ 5: Civilian Encounter
Leave Family Advanced Medical Supplies *Advanced Medical Supplies (CJ1)	5
Evacuate Child + One Parent	4
Evacuate Entire Family	3
Request Separate Extraction	2
Keep Moving	1
CJ 6: Final Extraction
Call Close Air Support	5
Cover Approach with Smoke Non-Lethal Equipment (CJ1)	4
Emergency Extraction Point	3
Make a Run for It	2
Call Off Extraction	0
Counter-Attack	0

Submit Your Team Scorecard

To submit your scorecard: (1) Calculate Total Score (above); (2) Fill in Organization Name, Team Name, and Your Email Address (below); and (3) Click on the “Submit Team Scorecard” button (below).

Once you’ve reviewed the Mission Summary and submitted your Team Scorecard, proceed to the Mission Retrospective under the guidance your Facilitator to unpack your team’s experience.