Pegasus Lift - Mission Summary

Evaluation of Options & Impact of Alerts

Operation Pegasus Lift – Mission Summary
CJ 1 – Equipment Selection

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion Definition Weight Rationale
Mission-Enabling Value How strongly the kit unlocks or enhances later high-pay-off courses of action. 30 % The whole purpose of pre-mission load-planning is to create future options; that long-tail benefit deserves top weight.
Weight / Mobility Penalty Added kilograms and bulk that will slow ingress, egress, and casualty movement. 25 % Excess weight hurts performance in every phase; almost as decisive as mission-enabling value.
Signature & Detectability Likelihood the gear produces noise, light, RF, or bulk that makes the team easier to detect. 20 % Stealth is a core SOF principle, but most loads can be masked through tactics; moderate weight.
Versatility Across Phases Number of distinct phases or contingencies in which the kit is useful. 15 % Flexibility matters, but only after the first three factors are satisfied.
Humanitarian / Resilience Benefit Contribution to medical treatment for allies or civilians, or to team endurance. 10 % Ethical and resilience value is important, but it cannot override mission success criteria.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option Mission-Enabling Value Weight / Mobility Penalty Signature & Detectability Versatility Across Phases Humanitarian / Resilience Benefit Weighted Total
30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 100 %
Technical Surveillance Equipment 1.50 1.00 0.80 0.75 0.20 1.01
Advanced Medical Supplies 1.20 0.75 1.00 0.60 0.50 0.89
Non-Lethal Equipment 0.90 0.75 0.60 0.45 0.40 0.69
Camouflage & Concealment 0.60 1.00 0.80 0.45 0.10 0.67
Weapons & Ammunition 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.10 0.44
Explosives & Breaching Equipment 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.30 0.00 0.24
CJ 2 – Tactical Insertion

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion Definition Weight Rationale
Detection Risk / Stealth Probability the insertion method will be spotted or heard by hostiles. 30 % A compromised infiltration can end the mission before it starts — highest weight.
Total Time to Crash Site End-to-end duration from departure to on-scene arrival. 25 % Time is life for the survivor and reduces the window for enemy response.
Insertion Reliability Sensitivity to weather, aircraft availability, or specialist skill requirements. 20 % Even a stealthy fast plan is useless if it’s cancelled half the time.
Operational Flexibility Freedom to adjust landing point, exfiltration axes, or altitude advantage. 15 % Valuable but a tie-breaker after stealth, time, and reliability.
Physical Toll on Team Fatigue, decompression, or injury risk imposed by the method. 10 % Important, yet SOF teams usually mitigate via conditioning.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option Detection Risk / Stealth Total Time Insertion Reliability Operational Flexibility Physical Toll Weighted Total
30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 100 %
HALO Parachute 1.50 1.25 0.80 0.60 0.30 1.04
Jungle Infiltration 1.50 0.50 1.00 0.60 0.20 0.89
HAHO Parachute 1.20 1.00 0.60 0.60 0.30 0.85
Indigenous Canoe 1.20 0.75 0.60 0.45 0.30 0.77
Humanitarian-Aid Cover 0.60 0.75 0.60 0.30 0.40 0.57
CJ 3 – Medical Intervention

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion Definition Weight Rationale
Probability of Medical Survival Estimated chance the casualty survives 24 hours post-treatment. 30 % Saving the isolated aircrew is the mission’s purpose — top weight.
Time on Site Additional minutes the team remains stationary at the crash site. 25 % Longer exposure multiplies ambush risk; near-top weight.
Mobility After Treatment Expected pace the casualty can sustain on foot after care. 20 % Determines whether egress timelines remain feasible.
Team Security Noise, light, or electronic signature introduced by the treatment. 15 % A bad choice here can compromise stealth; mid-weight.
Logistical Dependence Need for external assets or pre-chosen kit to execute the option. 10 % Adds friction but is usually manageable — lowest weight.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option Probability of Medical Survival Time on Site Mobility After Treatment Team Security Logistical Dependence Weighted Total
30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 100 %
Immediate Extraction / In-Transit Care 1.50 1.25 0.60 0.60 0.40 1.01
Rapid Stabilization 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.50 0.91
Shrapnel Management & Splint 0.90 0.75 0.80 0.60 0.50 0.76
Advanced Medical Care
*Available if Advanced Medical Supplies selected in CJ 1*		 1.50 0.50 0.80 0.45 0.20 0.82
Drone-Delivered Supplies 0.90 0.25 0.80 0.30 0.10 0.55
CJ 4 – Ambush Ahead

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion Definition Weight Rationale
Probability of Avoiding Contact Likelihood the team passes the ambush without engaging the enemy. 30 % Preserving lives and ammo by avoiding contact is paramount.
Time Penalty to Extraction Point Additional minutes required to reach the extraction point. 25 % Delays increase exposure and reduce survival window.
Risk to Team Expected casualty probability if contact occurs. 20 % Direct threat to personnel safety must be minimized.
Operational Signature Noise, smoke, or other detectable effects that reveal team presence. 15 % Maintaining stealth and political discretion is important.
Sustainability Impact on fatigue, ammunition, and morale for follow-on movement. 10 % Ensuring capacity for subsequent phases is necessary.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option Probability of Avoiding Contact Time Penalty Risk to Team Operational Signature Sustainability Weighted Total
30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 100 %
Recon & Bypass
*if Surveillance Kit selected*		 1.50 1.00 0.80 0.75 0.40 1.01
KIA Diversion 1.50 0.75 1.00 0.45 0.30 0.94
Close Air Support 1.50 1.25 0.60 0.15 0.40 0.95
Alternate Route 1.20 0.75 0.80 0.75 0.30 0.85
Counter-Ambush
*if Weapons selected*		 0.90 1.00 0.40 0.15 0.20 0.64
CJ 5 – Civilian Encounter

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion Definition Weight Rationale
Mission Integrity / Tempo Keeps the team on timeline and aligned with the original rescue/exfil plan. 40 % The primary hostage-recovery mission can’t slip — so it carries the heaviest share.
Protection of Non-Combatants Shields the wounded family from further harm until hand-off. 20 % Still a legal and moral mandate, but subordinate to mission success.
Risk to Team Extra detection, infection or kinetic danger imposed on SOF operators. 20 % Force-protection equals civilian care in importance; both sit just below tempo.
Political / Informational Optics Chance of negative media, diplomatic fallout or propaganda win. 10 % Long-term reputational effects matter, but immediate mission goals dominate.
Resource Cost Added seats, fuel or payload consumed. 10 % Logistical strain is real yet usually solvable — kept at the lowest tier.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option Protection of Non-Combatants Mission Integrity / Tempo Risk to Team Political / Informational Optics Resource Cost Weighted Total
20 % 40 % 20 % 10 % 10 % 100 %
Leave Advanced Medical Supplies 1.20 1.25 1.00 0.60 0.50 1.05
Keep Moving 0.30 1.50 1.25 0.30 1.00 1.04
Evacuate Child + One Parent 1.50 1.00 0.75 0.75 0.30 0.96
Request Separate Extraction 1.20 0.75 0.80 0.60 0.20 0.78
Evacuate Entire Family 1.50 0.50 0.60 0.75 0.20 0.72
CJ 6 – Final Extraction

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion Definition Weight Rationale
Probability of Successful Extraction Likelihood the entire team, casualty, and aircrew leave the area alive. 30 % Mission cannot succeed without a safe extraction — top weight.
Immediate Risk to Life Expected casualties to team and aircrew during the extraction attempt. 25 % Almost as critical as success; balances risk vs. speed.
Time to Execute Ability to complete the action within the 5-minute abort window. 20 % Time is fuel and life; must fit within the abort timeline.
Collateral / Strategic Optics Potential civilian damage and political fallout of the option. 15 % Strategic cost lingers but secondary to saving lives now.
Follow-On Logistics Fuel, ordnance, or maintenance impacts that affect further ops. 10 % Important for subsequent missions, but least urgent.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option Probability of Success Immediate Risk to Life Time to Execute Optics Logistics Weighted Total
30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10 % 100 %
Call Close Air Support 1.50 1.25 1.00 0.45 0.30 1.06
Emergency Extraction Point 1.20 1.00 0.60 0.75 0.50 0.89
Cover Approach with Smoke 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.75 0.40 0.92
Make a Run for It 0.90 0.50 1.00 0.75 0.50 0.76
Call Off Extraction 0.00 0.25 0.00 0.75 0.50 0.23
Counter-Attack 0.30 0.25 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.30
Impact of Alerts

How Alerts Influenced Each Critical Juncture

Critical Juncture Alert Impact
CJ 1 – Equipment Selection

No alerts: Evaluation reflects baseline planning assumptions.
CJ 2 – Tactical Insertion

Alert 2.2 – Helicopter Grounded: Removed helicopter insertion option.

Alert 2.1 – Broken Communications: Increased urgency, boosting transit time scores (+0.25) and lowering reliability (–0.25) for air methods.
CJ 3 – Medical Intervention

Alert 3.1 – Multiple Extraction Points: Required reassessment of site time, penalizing slow options (–0.25).

Alert 3.2 – Severe Weather & Rising Threat: Increased team security risk (–0.25) for radio/UAV methods.
CJ 4 – Ambush Ahead

HAWKEYE Intelligence: Detection of ~40 enemy soldiers spiked the weight on contact avoidance and forced counter-ambush raw score to 1.
CJ 5 – Civilian Encounter

Alert 5.1 – Hostile Platoon Closing: Removed KIA support option and reduced mission-integrity scores (–0.25) for all evac choices.

KIA Support Offline: Penalized lingering options by raising team-risk (+0.25).
CJ 6 – Final Extraction

Alert 6.1 – V‑22 Damage & SAM Threat: Imposed a 5‑min abort window, added time-to-execute criterion (0.20 weight).

Alert 6.1 Continued: Reduced success probabilities (–0.25) for options delaying takeoff; ran-time boosted (+0.20).

Team Scorecard

Confirm your team score below by selecting the options your team chose and confirm whether the time ran out (i.e. late decision).  Compare your selection to the rank ordering from a professional Special Operations Forces team.

Pegasus Lift Mission Scorecard
Critical Juncture Pro Team Score Your Decision Late Decision?
CJ 1: Equipment Selection
Technical Surveillance Equipment 5
Advanced Medical Supplies4
Non-Lethal Equipment3
Camouflage & Concealment2
Weapons & Ammunition1
Explosives & Breaching Equipment0
CJ 2: Tactical Insertion
HALO Parachute 5
Jungle Infiltration4
HAHO Parachute3
Indigenous Canoe2
Humanitarian-Aid Cover1
CJ 3: Medical Intervention
Immediate Extraction / In-Transit Care 5
Rapid Stabilization4
Shrapnel Management & Splint3
Advanced Medical Care
*Advanced Medical Supplies (CJ1)		2
Drone-Delivered Supplies1
CJ 4: Ambush Ahead
Recon & Bypass
*Technical Surveillance Equipment (CJ1)		 5
KIA Diversion4
Close Air Support3
Alternate Route2
Counter-Ambush
*Weapons & Ammunition (CJ1)		1
CJ 5: Civilian Encounter
Leave Advanced Medical Supplies
*Advanced Medical Supplies (CJ1) 		5
Keep Moving 4
Evacuate Child + One Parent 3
Request Separate Extraction 2
Evacuate Entire Family 1
CJ 6: Final Extraction
Call Close Air Support 5
Cover Approach with Smoke
*Non-Lethal Equipment (CJ1)*		4
Emergency Extraction Point3
Make a Run for It2
Call Off Extraction0
Counter-Attack0

Submit Your Team Scorecard

To submit your scorecard: (1) Calculate Total Score (above); (2) Fill in Organization Name, Team Name, and Your Email Address (below); and (3) Click on the “Submit Team Scorecard” button (below).

Once you’ve reviewed the Mission Summary and submitted your Team Scorecard, proceed to the Mission Retrospective under the guidance your Facilitator to unpack your team’s experience.

Mission Retrospective
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