Pegasus Lift - Mission Summary

Evaluation of Options & Impact of Alerts

Operation Pegasus Lift – Mission Summary

CJ 1 – Equipment Selection

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Mission-Enabling Value	How strongly the kit unlocks or enhances later high-pay-off courses of action.	30 %	The whole purpose of pre-mission load-planning is to create future options; that long-tail benefit deserves top weight.
Weight / Mobility Penalty	Added kilograms and bulk that will slow ingress, egress, and casualty movement.	25 %	Excess weight hurts performance in every phase; almost as decisive as mission-enabling value.
Signature & Detectability	Likelihood the gear produces noise, light, RF, or bulk that makes the team easier to detect.	20 %	Stealth is a core SOF principle, but most loads can be masked through tactics; moderate weight.
Versatility Across Phases	Number of distinct phases or contingencies in which the kit is useful.	15 %	Flexibility matters, but only after the first three factors are satisfied.
Humanitarian / Resilience Benefit	Contribution to medical treatment for allies or civilians, or to team endurance.	10 %	Ethical and resilience value is important, but it cannot override mission success criteria.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option	Mission-Enabling Value	Weight / Mobility Penalty	Signature & Detectability	Versatility Across Phases	Humanitarian / Resilience Benefit	Weighted Total
	30 %	25 %	20 %	15 %	10 %	100 %
Technical Surveillance Equipment	1.50	1.00	0.80	0.75	0.20	1.01
Advanced Medical Supplies	1.20	0.75	1.00	0.60	0.50	0.89
Non-Lethal Equipment	0.90	0.75	0.60	0.45	0.40	0.69
Camouflage & Concealment	0.60	1.00	0.80	0.45	0.10	0.67
Weapons & Ammunition	0.60	0.50	0.40	0.30	0.10	0.44
Explosives & Breaching Equipment	0.30	0.25	0.20	0.30	0.00	0.24

CJ 2 – Tactical Insertion

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Detection Risk / Stealth	Probability the insertion method will be spotted or heard by hostiles.	30 %	A compromised infiltration can end the mission before it starts — highest weight.
Total Time to Crash Site	End-to-end duration from departure to on-scene arrival.	25 %	Time is life for the survivor and reduces the window for enemy response.
Insertion Reliability	Sensitivity to weather, aircraft availability, or specialist skill requirements.	20 %	Even a stealthy fast plan is useless if it’s cancelled half the time.
Operational Flexibility	Freedom to adjust landing point, exfiltration axes, or altitude advantage.	15 %	Valuable but a tie-breaker after stealth, time, and reliability.
Physical Toll on Team	Fatigue, decompression, or injury risk imposed by the method.	10 %	Important, yet SOF teams usually mitigate via conditioning.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option	Detection Risk / Stealth	Total Time	Insertion Reliability	Operational Flexibility	Physical Toll	Weighted Total
	30 %	25 %	20 %	15 %	10 %	100 %
HALO Parachute	1.50	1.25	0.80	0.60	0.30	1.04
Jungle Infiltration	1.50	0.50	1.00	0.60	0.20	0.89
HAHO Parachute	1.20	1.00	0.60	0.60	0.30	0.85
Indigenous Canoe	1.20	0.75	0.60	0.45	0.30	0.77
Humanitarian-Aid Cover	0.60	0.75	0.60	0.30	0.40	0.57

CJ 3 – Medical Intervention

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Probability of Medical Survival	Estimated chance the casualty survives 24 hours post-treatment.	30 %	Saving the isolated aircrew is the mission’s purpose — top weight.
Time on Site	Additional minutes the team remains stationary at the crash site.	25 %	Longer exposure multiplies ambush risk; near-top weight.
Mobility After Treatment	Expected pace the casualty can sustain on foot after care.	20 %	Determines whether egress timelines remain feasible.
Team Security	Noise, light, or electronic signature introduced by the treatment.	15 %	A bad choice here can compromise stealth; mid-weight.
Logistical Dependence	Need for external assets or pre-chosen kit to execute the option.	10 %	Adds friction but is usually manageable — lowest weight.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option	Probability of Medical Survival	Time on Site	Mobility After Treatment	Team Security	Logistical Dependence	Weighted Total
	30 %	25 %	20 %	15 %	10 %	100 %
Immediate Extraction / In-Transit Care	1.50	1.25	0.60	0.60	0.40	1.01
Rapid Stabilization	1.20	1.00	0.80	0.60	0.50	0.91
Shrapnel Management & Splint	0.90	0.75	0.80	0.60	0.50	0.76
Advanced Medical Care Available if Advanced Medical Supplies selected in CJ 1	1.50	0.50	0.80	0.45	0.20	0.82
Drone-Delivered Supplies	0.90	0.25	0.80	0.30	0.10	0.55

CJ 4 – Ambush Ahead

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Probability of Avoiding Contact	Likelihood the team passes the ambush without engaging the enemy.	30 %	Preserving lives and ammo by avoiding contact is paramount.
Time Penalty to Extraction Point	Additional minutes required to reach the extraction point.	25 %	Delays increase exposure and reduce survival window.
Risk to Team	Expected casualty probability if contact occurs.	20 %	Direct threat to personnel safety must be minimized.
Operational Signature	Noise, smoke, or other detectable effects that reveal team presence.	15 %	Maintaining stealth and political discretion is important.
Sustainability	Impact on fatigue, ammunition, and morale for follow-on movement.	10 %	Ensuring capacity for subsequent phases is necessary.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option	Probability of Avoiding Contact	Time Penalty	Risk to Team	Operational Signature	Sustainability	Weighted Total
	30 %	25 %	20 %	15 %	10 %	100 %
Recon & Bypass if Surveillance Kit selected	1.50	1.00	0.80	0.75	0.40	1.01
KIA Diversion	1.50	0.75	1.00	0.45	0.30	0.94
Close Air Support	1.50	1.25	0.60	0.15	0.40	0.95
Alternate Route	1.20	0.75	0.80	0.75	0.30	0.85
Counter-Ambush if Weapons selected	0.90	1.00	0.40	0.15	0.20	0.64

CJ 5 – Civilian Encounter

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Mission Integrity / Tempo	Keeps the team on timeline and aligned with the original rescue/exfil plan.	40 %	The primary hostage-recovery mission can’t slip — so it carries the heaviest share.
Protection of Non-Combatants	Shields the wounded family from further harm until hand-off.	20 %	Still a legal and moral mandate, but subordinate to mission success.
Risk to Team	Extra detection, infection or kinetic danger imposed on SOF operators.	20 %	Force-protection equals civilian care in importance; both sit just below tempo.
Political / Informational Optics	Chance of negative media, diplomatic fallout or propaganda win.	10 %	Long-term reputational effects matter, but immediate mission goals dominate.
Resource Cost	Added seats, fuel or payload consumed.	10 %	Logistical strain is real yet usually solvable — kept at the lowest tier.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option	Protection of Non-Combatants	Mission Integrity / Tempo	Risk to Team	Political / Informational Optics	Resource Cost	Weighted Total
	20 %	40 %	20 %	10 %	10 %	100 %
Leave Advanced Medical Supplies	1.20	1.25	1.00	0.60	0.50	1.05
Keep Moving	0.30	1.50	1.25	0.30	1.00	1.04
Evacuate Child + One Parent	1.50	1.00	0.75	0.75	0.30	0.96
Request Separate Extraction	1.20	0.75	0.80	0.60	0.20	0.78
Evacuate Entire Family	1.50	0.50	0.60	0.75	0.20	0.72

CJ 6 – Final Extraction

Evaluation Criteria & Weightings

Criterion	Definition	Weight	Rationale
Probability of Successful Extraction	Likelihood the entire team, casualty, and aircrew leave the area alive.	30 %	Mission cannot succeed without a safe extraction — top weight.
Immediate Risk to Life	Expected casualties to team and aircrew during the extraction attempt.	25 %	Almost as critical as success; balances risk vs. speed.
Time to Execute	Ability to complete the action within the 5-minute abort window.	20 %	Time is fuel and life; must fit within the abort timeline.
Collateral / Strategic Optics	Potential civilian damage and political fallout of the option.	15 %	Strategic cost lingers but secondary to saving lives now.
Follow-On Logistics	Fuel, ordnance, or maintenance impacts that affect further ops.	10 %	Important for subsequent missions, but least urgent.

Weighted-Scoring Table

Option	Probability of Success	Immediate Risk to Life	Time to Execute	Optics	Logistics	Weighted Total
	30 %	25 %	20 %	15 %	10 %	100 %
Call Close Air Support	1.50	1.25	1.00	0.45	0.30	1.06
Emergency Extraction Point	1.20	1.00	0.60	0.75	0.50	0.89
Cover Approach with Smoke	1.20	1.00	0.80	0.75	0.40	0.92
Make a Run for It	0.90	0.50	1.00	0.75	0.50	0.76
Call Off Extraction	0.00	0.25	0.00	0.75	0.50	0.23
Counter-Attack	0.30	0.25	0.40	0.30	0.20	0.30

Impact of Alerts

How Alerts Influenced Each Critical Juncture

Critical Juncture	Alert Impact
CJ 1 – Equipment Selection	No alerts: Evaluation reflects baseline planning assumptions.
CJ 2 – Tactical Insertion	Alert 2.2 – Helicopter Grounded: Removed helicopter insertion option. Alert 2.1 – Broken Communications: Increased urgency, boosting transit time scores (+0.25) and lowering reliability (–0.25) for air methods.
CJ 3 – Medical Intervention	Alert 3.1 – Multiple Extraction Points: Required reassessment of site time, penalizing slow options (–0.25). Alert 3.2 – Severe Weather & Rising Threat: Increased team security risk (–0.25) for radio/UAV methods.
CJ 4 – Ambush Ahead	HAWKEYE Intelligence: Detection of ~40 enemy soldiers spiked the weight on contact avoidance and forced counter-ambush raw score to 1.
CJ 5 – Civilian Encounter	Alert 5.1 – Hostile Platoon Closing: Removed KIA support option and reduced mission-integrity scores (–0.25) for all evac choices. KIA Support Offline: Penalized lingering options by raising team-risk (+0.25).
CJ 6 – Final Extraction	Alert 6.1 – V‑22 Damage & SAM Threat: Imposed a 5‑min abort window, added time-to-execute criterion (0.20 weight). Alert 6.1 Continued: Reduced success probabilities (–0.25) for options delaying takeoff; ran-time boosted (+0.20).

Mission Scorecard

This scorecard is generated automatically from your team’s recorded decisions in CJ1, CJ2, CJ3, CJ4, CJ5, and CJ6, including whether each decision was made on time or late.

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Overall Score

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Includes any late penalties.

Mission Outcome

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Late Decisions

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No timing data yet.

Critical Juncture

CJ1 — Equipment Selection

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Selected Option

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Score

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Timing

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Critical Juncture

CJ2 — Tactical Insertion

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Selected Option

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Score

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Timing

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Critical Juncture

CJ3 — Medical Intervention

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Selected Option

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Score

— / 5

Timing

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Critical Juncture

CJ4 — Ambush Ahead

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Selected Option

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Score

— / 5

Timing

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Critical Juncture

CJ5 — Civilian Encounter

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Selected Option

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Score

— / 5

Timing

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Critical Juncture

CJ6 — Final Extraction

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Selected Option

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Score

— / 5

Timing

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Mission Outcome

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How this scorecard works

Scores are generated automatically from the team’s recorded decisions in CJ1 through CJ6. Each Critical Juncture uses a simplified 5-point score aligned to the Pegasus Lift Mission Summary.

Rank 15

Rank 24

Rank 33

Rank 42

Rank 51

Rank 6 or unranked0

A late decision subtracts 1 point from that CJ’s score. For Pegasus Lift, decisions are late if made after the CJ decision window: CJ1 = 5 minutes, CJ2 = 15 minutes, CJ3 = 10 minutes, CJ4 = 7 minutes, CJ5 = 10 minutes, and CJ6 = 8 minutes.

Submit Your Team Scorecard

After your team has reviewed and discussed the Mission Summary, proceed to the Mission Retrospective with the Team Lead clicking the button on the right.